Alp Demir Savaş, Regime-Aware Day-Ahead Electricity Consumption Forecasting for Türkiye: A Meta-Learning-Based Ensemble Approach
This thesis develops a regime-aware day-ahead electricity consumption forecasting framework for Türkiye. It aims to predict the next day’s 24-hour national consumption profile using historical load, weather, and calendar variables from 2019–2025. Special attention is given to weekends, public holidays, Ramadan, and Eid periods, since these days create different demand patterns. Several statistical, machine learning, deep learning, hybrid, and meta-learning models are compared. The best result is achieved by a Ridge and LightGBM-based meta-learner, reaching 1.63% MAPE in 2025.
Date: 04.06.2026 / 10:00 Place: A-212









